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Determining Climate Change Impact at the Tuban New Grass Root Refinery 

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About the Project

ESC was commissioned by PT Pertamina and Rosneft Oil Company to conduct Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) for the Proposed Integrated Oil Refining and Petrochemical Complex or New Grass Root Refinery (NGRR) in Tuban, East Java, Indonesia. The aim of the assessment is to assess the baseline climate conditions obtained from secondary data and to predict potential impacts and hazards associated with the project based on the potential changes to the local as well as the global climate conditions.

Our Approach

ESC started by establishing the current climatic condition of the project site and the anticipated impact of global warming throughout the project lifecycle of PEC. The baseline climatic condition of the PEC project site will be established based on the information as provided in PEC EISHA as well as other related information that are publicly available. For the assessment of the anticipated climate change scenario, the assessment will be conducted by

For the assessment of the anticipated climate change scenario, the assessment will be conducted by adopting the 1.5 °C scenarios as well as the information as described in IPCC Special Report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emissions pathways (SR 1.5), National Coastal Vulnerability Index (NCVI) 2007 and Malaysia’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC, 2011.

The Climate Change Risk Assessment of potential impacts is carried out utilising both qualitative and quantitative assessment techniques. The assessment approach is structured as a tiered process and consisted of the following steps:

Step 1: Screen the project climate change risks to determine whether further climate change-related analysis is necessary.

Step 2: Define the assessment parameters which include defining the site and planning horizons and identifying and gathering relevant data to better understand what type of vulnerability assessment will be conducted.

Step 3: Conduct vulnerability and risk assessment to identify how prone the project is to climate change hazards (such as sea level rise, hurricanes, flooding and drought). Determine the need to conduct basic or detailed risk assessment.

Step 4: Identify variation to mitigate the risk.

Step 5: Implement options and monitor and evaluate the effectiveness. Make adjustments based on new data

This provides the flexibility to the project proponent to stop the assessment after the project screening (Step 1) if the project viability is not sensitive to climate change, and to choose necessary basic or more complex risk assessment for the proposed project (Step 3).


ESC has identified the potential risk of climate change to the development of the project and assessed the severity of impact and the likelihood of occurrence. ESC managed to determine that climate change will not undermine the goals, objectives and outcomes of the proposed project and the development of the project is appropriate, viable and sustainable in the face of climate change.

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